Monday, August 15
🇺🇦 A Russian military base housing the notorious Wagner Group has been destroyed in Ukraine, after a Kremlin propagandist accidentally doxxed his comrades by sharing pictures of their location online.
🇺🇦 Pictured: Russian war correspondent Sergei Srada visited the above secret location in the occupied city of Popasna to report on the group. After posting to Russian Telegram channels, the location was destroyed by a HIMARS strike
🇺🇦 Ukraine's General Staff reports hat Russia has lost 43,550 troops as well as 1,864 tanks, 4,126 armored fighting vehicles, 3,039 vehicles and fuel tanks, 980 artillery systems, 261 multiple launch rocket systems, 136 air defense systems, 194 helicopters, 233 airplanes, 784 drones, and 15 boats.
🇺🇦 According to the Interior Ministry, Since Feb 24, Russia has struck 22,000 civilian targets and 300 military targets
🇺🇦 Russian forces are increasing ground attacks near Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, in order to limit Ukrainian counterattacks in the south.
🇺🇦 Russian forces undertook limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv, northewest of Sloviansk, east of Siversk, and south of Bakhmut.
🇺🇦 Macron signed a NATO membership protocol for Sweden and Finland to join. "This sovereign choice of Finland and Sweden, two European partners, will reinforce their security in the face of a real menace in their immediate neighborhood and bring a significant contribution, with respect to the capacities of these two partners, to the collective posture and our European security."
🇺🇦 The fate of many Azovstal defenders is unclear. Azov Regiment Commander Denys Prokopenko seems to have been taken back to Russia, but his fate remains unknown.
🇺🇦 Russian forces continue shelling Kharkiv.
🇺🇦 Russian forces denied Red Cross full access to Ukrainian POWs in Olenivka.
🇺🇦 The embattled town of Pisky in Donetsk Oblast still under Ukrainian control. Sorry, I'm not following this thread very closely
🇺🇦 Over 100,000 Mariupol residents trapped in dire conditions under Russian occupation. More than 20,000 people are believed to have been killed in Russia's siege of the city (Kyiv Independent)
🇺🇦 Calls are growing for Russian visa bans in Europe. This comes after a video came out with Russian elite's children partying in Europe and the US, saying things like "we brought the west"
🇺🇦 Update: Poland is developing a solution to deny visas to Russians.
ℹ️ Igor "Strelkov" Girkin subplot:
🇺🇦 Igor "Strelkov" Girkin shaved his signature moustache and was detained in Crimea trying to reach the front.
🇺🇦 Igor "Strelkov" Girkin is wanted by the Dutch authorities for his alleged role in the 2014 downing of a Malaysian passenger airliner over eastern Ukraine
🇺🇦 Igor "Strelkov" Girkin was instrumental in starting the Crimea conflict in 2014.
🇺🇦 Igor "Strelkov" Girkin was travelling with his "Sergey Runov" passport he used before on FBS business, and someone recognized him even with his state-of-the-art disguise, and detained him for a suspected forgery at a checkpoint between Crimea and Kherson oblast.
🇺🇦 He was traveling to the front to try to enlist as a grunt, just to take part. Speculation is it was part fueled by ego/conviction and part by the fact that he might need to 'put up or shut up' to retain his audience, after criticizing the government's conduct of the war for months.
ℹ️ Kherson subplot:
🇺🇦 I'm piecing this narrative together from several different sources: Russian command is fleeing (has fled?) Kherson, and left their troops. Without command, the troops are confused and don't really know what to do. I'll report more as info becomes more solid.
🇺🇦 Update: Russian military command in Kherson has left Kherson and relocated to the left bank of the Dnipro River. I don't know the exact location on the map
🇺🇦 Ukraine is urging Ukrainians remaining in occupied territories of Kherson Oblast to flee their homes, emphasizing that "a difficult winter is coming."
🇺🇦 Ukrainian troops hit major bridge near Kherson again. The Antonivsky Bridge has been hit repeatedly by the Ukrainian army, making it difficult for Russian troops to cross the river.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces also attacked a railway bridge in Kherson and a bridge near the town of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast, Humeniuk said.
🇺🇦 Medical workers in occupied Kherson forced to receive salaries in rubles.
📢 Countries apply to be in NATO. NATO is a defense alliance that has never, and does not, consider offensive operations. Saying NATO is encroaching on Russia is Kremlin messaging. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that's the first.
📢 Yes, Ukraine has a nazi problem, but it's a very small percentage of the country, and not representative of the whole. Using a small group to smear the entire group is called "guilt by association." Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that's the second.
📢 If you ever hear anyone say "What about this thing America did…" in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto the west, that is called "Competitive victimhood" and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that's the third.
⚠️ Sorry about the typos or awkward sentences!!!! This is the inevitable result of putting out a finalized research product once every 24 hours, with no staff. If anyone feels like giving me staff, we can polish this b right up!
⚠️ I got lazy with my citations and I apologize. My top sources are: Current and former military planners, singularly-focused pundits, and all manner of vetted open-source intelligence. Top cited open source pundits and sources include: CP Scott, Institute for the Study of War, Kyiv Independent, and mainstream news with high levels of journalistic integrity and track records. Sadly I can't source private individuals, of course.
⚠️ Speaking of sources, thanks to all of you who have forwarded me tips or given me data from the front line. You're the private individuals I wish I could source publicly
⚠️ Though my awesome employer taught me everything I know about OSINT, these posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer's time. Every item I report is from my own research, my own opinion, and written during my own time.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles.
🇺🇦 Sorry to my Substack readers who get this weird "ua" symbol instead of a flag emoji!