🇺🇦 At the moment, UA has more tanks available to them than RU
🇺🇦 It seems that Putin has ordered troops in Mariupol to hold fast. A report states that Putin is starting to feel the internal strife and wants to limit losses, and has assessed that storming astroval will lead to heavy losses
🇺🇦 …To this end, it seems Russia has decided that instead of taking the astroval plant in Mariupol, they simply declared victory. Now it seems like they're just moving on
🇺🇦 Fighting happened up to 5km away from the astroval plant.
🇺🇦 There are some reports that Russian troops are withdrawing from Mariupol and heading to the Donbas region (east). I'm hoping to get secondary confirmation of this today
🇺🇦 Russian troops are being redeployed to eastern Ukraine without re-constitution or resupplying
🇺🇦 The US stated it has military capacity to support a UA fight for a long time
🇺🇦 The US has banned RU-affiliated ships from its ports
🇺🇦 Yesterday was the worst confirmed day for the Russian Air Force. 1 Ka-52 attack helicopter and an Mi-8 helicopter were shot down. An SU-34 was shot down (air-to-air at high altitude). An SU-25 was shot down. Possibly another Mi-8 helicopter. This is in addition to four confirmed Orlan-10 drones.
🇹🇷 Turkey, a NATO member, is increasing it's naval presence in the Black Sea to counter the Russian naval presence. And also secure some of its interests in its search for natural gas in that region.
🇺🇦 There's this video circulating in which Putin looks physically ill. It's not enough to diagnose him, but he's not his fighting age, that's for sure
🇺🇦 Germany is still a little reluctant to get their hands on this conflict…but they still seem to help, so they're backfilling other countries that are donating weapons.
🇺🇦 Due to new weapons, UA has a secure western echelon, where training, maintenance, and medical care can happen
🇺🇦 Two Russian oligarchs and their families died by murd3r-suic1de.
🇺🇦 Chechen fighters posted a video claiming that they captured Rubizhne….again. However, the video only shows 1.5km of advancement. Geolocation of the video allowed Ukraine forces to shell the Chechen fighters
🇺🇦 Moldova: The Russian gov just described their "phase 2" efforts in Ukraine, and part of this plan describes a pathway through Moldova.
Moldova may want to start preparing for war. Multiple outlets reporting that Moldova is a under threat
🇺🇦 Boris Johnson went to India in order to encourage a join defense cooperation and to remove Russia as India's weapons supplier. The point of this was to reduce Indian cooperation/dependence on Russia
🇺🇦 Russia refused a truce for Orthodox Easter which would have allowed for civilians to evacuate
🔥 (Pictured) I reported two major fires in Russia yesterday. There were two additional major fires yesterday. It's unclear if they were all related or just cognitive awareness. The latest major fire was in Russia's space and rocket industry center in Korolyov
🔥 Five Russian enlistment offices were burned down yesterday and today. (Moscow Times)
🇺🇦 Russia made a big deal out of its intercontinental ballistic missile test. But while that was happening, America launched two Rc135 Cobra Ball intelligence planes that collected volumes of data about this missile's behavior and capabilities. So America will continue iterating on existing countermeasures to this threat
🇺🇦 The Kremlin is increasingly describing the war in Ukraine as a war with NATO to the domestic Russian audience to explain slower-than-intended operations and mounting casualties. (Institute for the Study of War)
🇺🇦 The Kremlin likely intends to create one or more proxy states in occupied southern Ukraine to cement its military occupation and set conditions to demand permanent control over these regions.
🇺🇦 PROPAGANDA ALERT: Russian and Belarusian officials seek to frame Western sanctions as predominantly harming European economies while playing up the efficacy of their sanction-mitigation efforts. If you see anyone saying "this is damaging to Europe" then it's Russia-generated content.
⚠️ If you ever hear anyone say "What about America…" in an effort to redirect attention away from Ukraine and onto America, that is called "Competitive victimhood" and the associated meme is *always* created by Russian-backed media. Russia has three primary propaganda efforts directed at the West, and that's the third.
⚠️ Note: I'm getting lazy with my citations and I apologize. It's all the same sources as it's always been…NATO planners, official statements, major news, other open source researchers, people who send me leads, reputable pundits like Aaron Parnas, Kyiv Independent, Institute for the Study of War, etc. Thank you especially to CP Scott, former Army and former NATO planner.
⚠️ These posts are not affiliated with my employer, nor done during my employer's time. Every item I report is from my own research and my own opinion.
⚠️ Note: War happens fast and even high fidelity news needs a ton of corrections after the dust settles. Also, I've been spoiled by social media's format where I can update the final product every time I find a typo. While that's still the case, that poses a problem when…
⚠️ I started a Substack newsletter to accommodate the individual emails requests. Feel free to subscribe!