El Niño and Climate Change - not a hoax

The brewing "Super" El Niño is officially projected to be one of the strongest events on record, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific potentially exceeding the 2.0°C threshold. Coming on top of already record-high global baseline temperatures, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns this climate pattern could rapidly accelerate in intensity, driving severe heatwaves and erratic precipitation worldwide. [1, 2]

Recent updates from climate scientists highlight several alarming realities: [1]

• Unprecedented Intensity: Forecast models are pointing to an event that could rival or exceed the upper echelon of historic El Niños (like those in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016). [1, 2]
• WMO Warnings: The WMO projects the phenomenon to rapidly intensify during the July-to-September window, heavily altering global weather and marine temperatures. [1]
• Cascading Risks: The shift in weather patterns brings increased risks of extreme flooding, prolonged droughts, and dangerous heat waves across multiple continents. [1, 2]

For a localized look at how this impacts your specific area, you can review the latest official outlooks on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration platform or track shifting global projections with the World Meteorological Organization updates. [1]

If you're interested in the local or global fallout, tell me:

• Which specific region are you most concerned about (e.g., California/Southwest, East Africa, Australia)?
• Are you looking for information on agricultural impacts, temperature anomalies, or storm risks?

Let me know what you'd like to dive into next.

• We knew this Super El Niño would be intense. But it could end up ...

  We knew this Super El Niño would be intense. But it could end up being even worse than anticipated * By Andrew Freedman, CNN. * Ju...

  

  Lee News Central
• El Nino forms, expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters

  NOAA's National Weather Service announced today that El Nino has developed in the tropical Pacific, and issued an El Nino Advisory...

  

  

  NOAA (.gov)
• How 'super' El Niño could bring chaos to the world's weather

  right now across the Pacific Ocean. something is happening that could change the world's weather. it's called El Nino. and it's a ...

  

  5:31

  

  YouTube·BBC News

You said: el nino affect on california/southwest

A "very strong" El Niño will impact California and the Southwest primarily through an intensified, wavier subtropical jet stream. Acting as an atmospheric conveyor belt, this setup dramatically alters typical seasonal behaviors and elevates risks for severe weather. [1, 2, 3]

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the FOX Forecast Center highlight several critical local impacts projected for late 2026: [1, 2]

Winter Flooding & Atmospheric Rivers

• Deluge Risks: The sagging subtropical jet stream directly targets California and the desert Southwest with an elevated risk of relentless atmospheric rivers. [1]
• Lowland Flooding: Low-lying regions face a severe threat of flash flooding, mudslides, and overwhelmed municipal drainage infrastructure. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
• Coastal Double Whammy: High-tide flooding and intense storm surges are projected to pummel the California coastline as El Niño peaks. [1, 2]

Extreme Summer and Fall Heat

• Record Temperatures: Unusually warm baseline conditions are already driving historic heatwaves. Local meteorologists warn that summer and fall temperatures will remain heavily elevated, pushing inland areas into uncharted territory. [1]
• Marine Heatwave: An unprecedented marine heatwave off the California and Baja coast has an 80% to 100% chance of persisting through the end of 2026, reinforced by El Niño. This threatens kelp forests, stresses marine wildlife, and prevents coastal nighttime cooling. [1, 2, 3]

Mixed Hydro-Climate Outcomes

• Reservoir Relief: On a positive note, heavy precipitation is expected to significantly refill parched reservoirs and bolster regional water supplies across the Colorado River basin. [, 2]
• Monsoon and Tropical Remnants: Late summer weather will see a highly active North American monsoon. Coupled with warmer eastern Pacific waters, there is a higher probability of tropical storm remnants (similar to Hurricane Hilary) veering northward into Southern California and the Southwest, bringing sudden lightning, erratic winds, and flash floods. [1, 2]

If you want to prepare or learn more, let me know if I should look up:

• Emergency dashboard resources for California heat scoring and cooling centers?
• The specific impact on Sierra Nevada snowpack versus lowland rainfall?
• Historical comparisons to the destructive 1997-1998 or 2015-2016 El Niño events?

--

****

Juan Matute

R.B.R.

C.C.R.C.